Just Breaking...
Zogby, released the crosstabs from his recent poll just this morning:
State: Texas
Summary:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
Barr - 6%
Nader -2%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 7%
Over 3,200 were surveyed in the poll, from June 11 - June 30.
Also of note, the same polling data crosstabs finds a high of 10% for Bob Barr in New Hampshire, and 9% in Oklahoma, New Mexico, and VP candidate Wayne Root's home state of Nevada. Also, of note, Barr is at 6% in Florida. Somewhat dissapointing, Barr is only polling 5% in California, but less surprisingly 5% in Massachusetts.
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5 comments:
I don't buy this poll. Zogby has Barr beating Nader everywhere, even in the more libral states like Washington and Oregon.
But Obama is pretty far left and thus would take more of Nader's vote than McCain would of Barr's.
Exactly! What room is there for a Nader or Cynthia McKinney. Obama scores a perfect 100 on the ADA (NeoMarxist group) Index.
That's even further to the Left than McKinney, if you can believe it.
Eric -
Its good to see this kind of information on the polls - but I would also inject a dose of reality as well.
Harry Browne polled much better than he actually did in the general election. Browne was getting a lot of airplay on the internet, and doing decently in polls (although not as well as Barr is). Still, Browne ended up far lower than those following the polls predicted. Browne was more pure libertarian, and IMO, better than Barr. Having said that, Barr’s name recognition should help.
In the 12 years since I became a Libertarian) there’s been a lot of infighting. By nature, libertarians are less likely to compromise and the purists get put off easily. OTOH, that’ll doom the LP candidates to < 1% of the vote. Barr seems like a great way to get beyond that. The purists may shun him (which I think is a mistake), but he can draw from other circles.
Here’s sharing your optimism - but realizing that the polls are optimistic.
Dave, you are correct that summer polls have significantly overstated the popularity of post-Wallace independents and third party candidates for president. That said, party infighting will have no measurable impact.
Most of Barr's support will come from small "L" libertarians and from conservatives who simply cannot stomach McCain. The greater the dissatisfaction with McCain, the better Barr will fare in November. The total vote cast by dues paying LP members nationally will be about 1/4 of the vote cast by Veterinarians who pay dues to the AVMA.
That is not to disparage the LP, which in spite of its small membership manages to inject serious issues and serious candidates into political debates. I am just saying that the LP's strength lies not in the size of its membership but in the quality of its leadership.
Alan Lindsay
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